Monday, December 31, 2018

NASA’s New Horizons On Target For New Years Day Flyby of Most Distant Object Ever - ‘Ultima Thule’


This image shows the first detection of 2014 MU69 (nicknamed "Ultima Thule"), using the highest resolution mode (known as "1x1") of the Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) aboard the New Horizons spacecraft. Three separate images, each with an exposure time of 0.5 seconds, were combined to produce the image shown here. All three images were taken on Dec. 24, 2018, at 01:56 UT spacecraft time and were downlinked to Earth about 12 hours later. Ultima was 4 billion miles (6.5 billion kilometers) from the Sun and 6.3 million miles (10 million kilometers) from the New Horizons spacecraft. Credit: NASA/Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory/Southwest Research Institute

Ken Kremer  --SpaceUpClose.com & RocketSTEM –30 December 2018

JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERISTY APPLIED PHYSICS LABORATORY, LAUREL, MD – With 1 day to go, NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft is on target to conduct the most distant ever flyby of an object by a spacecraft from humanity at a miniscule rock named ‘Ultima Thule’ on New Year’s Day 2019 - located over 4 Billion miles (6.5 billion km) from the Earth in the Kuiper Belt it is key to unlocking the mysteries of the origin and evolution of our Solar System eons ago at a place we known virtually about today.  That all changes on New Years Day.  

The flyby of ‘Ultima Thule’ by New Horizons will take place on New Year’s Day 2019 at 12:33 a.m. EST in the Kuiper Belt – the third and outermost and least explored region of our solar system.

And the final commands to accomplish the flyby have been sent to New Horizons by the science and engineering team back on Earth early Sunday, Dec. 30 and confirmed late in the evening when radio signals were received back on Earth by the eagerly waiting team.

“Decision to perform the knowledge update was made just after 3 am [EST] Dec 30, Alice Bowman, New Horizons Mission Operations Manager (MOM), Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, told Space UpClose. 
“Knowledge Update commands went up about 8:40 a.m. EST Dec 30 and have just been confirmed 9:10 p.m. EST Dec 30. And these are the last commands to accomplish the flyby.
Alice Bowman, New Horizons Mission Operations Manager (MOM) discusses Ultima Thule flyby at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory on Dec. 30, 2018 prior to Ultima Thule New Years Day 2019 flyby. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com/spaceupclose.com
The team only had to make a 2 second timing adjustment in the science and engineering observations and measurement approaching the aim point – which amounts to a change in known position of the spacecraft of just 30 kilometers, said Bowman at a media briefing for reporters today, Dec 30, at JHU APL. That’s just beyond amazing!


“The spacecraft is healthy. We are all very excited!”


“We've just confirmed that the Knowledge Update is onboard New Horizons, meaning Ultima Observations are adjusted to occur at the best possible times based on the latest trajectory info.@NasaNewHorizons @jhuapl,” Bowman added on twitter late tonight.
Completing the encounter successfully is now all up to the piano sized spacecraft itself which will operate autonomously and gather data using its suite of seven science instruments.
'Ultima Thule’ is a fossil remnant from the formation of the early solar system that has almost certainly remained unchanged over time and thus represents our best chance to study how we came to be some 4.5 Billion Years Ago.
New Horizons will swoop past ‘Ultima Thule’ at a velocity of 32,000 mph (9 miles per second) at a distance of merely 2,200 miles. 

Artists concept of New Horizons and Ultima Thule Kuiper Belt flyby target New Year’s Day 2019. Credit: NASA/JHUAPL/SWRI 
Although the encounter period lasts about 9 days, like during the Pluto planetary encounter, the closest approach period of science gathering itself is just +/- 1 hour from 12:33 a.m. Tuesday morning, Jan 1, 2019.

But even just 1 day out from the encounter no one – including the New Horizons team and the missions Principal Investigator PI Alan Stern - knows what the surface looks like or much else! Because of the immense distance from Earth. 
 “We don’t know a thing about MU69,” said Alan Stern, New Horizons principal investigator from the Southwest Research Institute, at the Dec. 30 media briefing for reporters at JHU APL. “We’ve never, in the history of spaceflight, gone to a target that we knew less about, and it’s remarkable that we’re on the verge of knowing a great deal about this.
“Today, I can’t tell you more than five facts about it. We know its orbit, we know its color, we know a little bit about its shape, and its reflectivity. We can’t even get the rotational period. I thought we’d have that 10 weeks ago.”
Alan Stern, New Horizons Principal Investigator (PI) discusses Ultima Thule flyby at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory on Dec. 30, 2018 prior to Ultima Thule New Years Day 2019 flyby. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com/spaceupclose.com
The shape and composition of ‘Ultima Thule’ is unknown. It could be peanut shaped or binary. Its size is estimated at no more than 20 miles (30 kilometers) long, or, if a binary, each about 9-12 miles (15-20 kilometers) in diameter. 
“Ultima Thule is a great wonderland. It the best preserved sample of pristine material ever visited. There is no geologic engine for change, unlike Pluto.”
The Ultima Thule flyby is historic in multiple respects.
Ultima Thule is likely the most primitive object ever visited by any spacecraft in history.
It also counts as the farther planetary flyby encounter ever conducted in history.
15 minutes after the flyby “New Horizons will phone home” and transmit health and safety data to confirm the outcome of the mission, Bowman explained at the briefing.
“We will learn how much data was gathered. But no pictures.”
The team expects to collect roughly 50 GB of data that will take about 2 years to downlink because of the slow data rate transmission, said Bowman.
Alice Bowman, New Horizons Mission Operations Manager (MOM) inside Mission Operations Center at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory on Dec. 29, 2018 prior to Ultima Thule New Years Day 2019 flyby. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com/spaceupclose.com 
Only a few GB will be sent before the spacecraft is occulted by the sun on Jan. 4, preventing further data playback for a few days until signals are reacquired.
A roughly 6 pixel image is expected on Jan. 1, says Stern.
The first hi resolution images are expected back on Earth on Jan. 2, says Stern.
“About a 100 pixel image is expected Jan. 2 and will be released at the 2 p.m. media briefing.”

New Horizons has been hurtling towards the unexplored outer limits of our Solar System since launching 13 years ago in Jan. 2006 and conducting the first up close flyby of Pluto – the ninth planet - in July 2015. 

Pluto, the largest known body in the Kuiper Belt, was the first target explored by New Horizons during a fast flyby over three years ago during July 2015.


Global mosaic of Pluto created from raw images gathered during July 2015 flyby by NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft. Credit: NASA/JHU/JPL/SWRI/Marco Di Lorenzo/Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com
‘Ultima Thule’ is the second Kuiper Belt object that will be explored up close by New Horizons.
The small icy rock in the Kuiper Belt located some 1 Billion miles (1.6 Billion km) beyond Pluto and orbits 4.1 Billion miles (6.6 Billion km) from the Sun and the Earth .
The New Horizons team tapped ‘Ultima Thule’ as the nickname for the spacecrafts next flyby target on New Year’s Day 2019 – “symbolizing this ultimate exploration by NASA” says Alan Stern, the missions team leader and chief scientist.
The primitive frozen world - officially known as 2014 MU69 – will become the farthest object ever explored up close by a manmade emissary in history when NASA’s New Horizons spaceship zooms past for a close encounter on Jan. 1, 2019 orbiting more than a billion miles beyond Pluto, the most distant planet in our Solar System.
The first ever up close examination of this distant object holds critical clues to the formation of the outer solar system eons ago.
Stern says New Horizons spacecraft is performing perfectly and all systems and subsystems are just as good as the day they were launch in Jan. 2006 on a ULA Atlas V rocket.
Alan Stern, New Horizons Principal Investigator (PI) discusses Ultima Thule flyby at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory on Dec. 30, 2018 prior to Ultima Thule New Years Day 2019 flyby. Credit: Ken Kremer/kenkremer.com/spaceupclose.com

It has enough power to operate through the mid-2030’s at least and can conduct a third flyby.
The team says they will begin that search immediately using the LORRI camera and propose an extended mission to NASA in the summer of 2020. 

Watch for Ken’s continuing onsite coverage direct from JHU APL.

Watch for Ken’s continuing onsite coverage of NASA, SpaceX, ULA, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and more space and mission reports direct from the Kennedy Space Center, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida and Wallops Flight Facility, Virginia.
Stay tuned here for Ken's continuing Earth and Planetary science and human spaceflight news: www.kenkremer.com –www.spaceupclose.com – twitter @ken_kremer – email: ken at kenkremer.com
Dr. Kremer is a research scientist, journalist and photographer based in the KSC area.
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